Data compiled from export records and sector analysis by Kpler show that Russia has collected between $1.3 billion and $1.9 billion in extra export taxes since the conflict intensified, as disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz redirected shipments toward major Asian buyers, including India and China. "If shipping schedules remain steady, India’s imports alone could reach nearly two million barrels per day this month,” said Sumit Ritolia in New Delhi.

Observations at Moscow’s port terminals reveal a visible uptick in crude loading activity, with crews operating around the clock amid a surge of tankers bound for Asia. Russian officials report that prices for Urals crude have climbed to $70–$80 per barrel, compared with an average of $52 in the preceding months, boosting state revenues just as the government faced a 50% drop in energy income earlier this year.

The spike follows partial adjustments in U.S. policy. US President Donald Trump signaled potential temporary easing of sanctions to mitigate global price spikes, a development Kremlin officials described as "productive discussions” with Moscow. Analysts caution that prolonged market volatility could heighten competition between India and China for Russian crude and place pressure on European governments considering long-planned LNG import bans.

Boris Dudonov, head of energy and climate studies at the Kyiv School of Economics, said the current conditions allow Russia to "achieve quarterly budget targets and possibly begin saving, despite earlier deficits.” Analysts note that sustaining these gains depends on the duration of Middle East disruptions, U.S. policy consistency, and Russia’s ability to scale production by up to 400,000 barrels per day.