The warning came as UNDP released a series of assessments during the fifth week of ongoing hostilities, highlighting structural vulnerabilities across a region stretching from Syria and Iraq to North Africa and the Gulf, despite continued exchanges of threats among the parties involved.

"This assessment reveals a troubling reality of structural fragilities across the region,” said Abdallah Al Dardari, Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations and Director of the Regional Bureau for Arab States at UNDP. "Even a short-term military escalation can generate deep and long-lasting socioeconomic consequences.”

According to the report, the escalation could reduce the region’s combined gross domestic product by between 3.7 and 6.0 percent, representing losses ranging from $120 billion to $194 billion. Economists and port officials in coastal cities reported slower cargo handling and reduced commercial activity, with visible congestion at terminals and delays in customs processing.

A second UNDP report focused on Iran projected a sharp economic contraction between 8.8 and 10.4 percent. The report estimated that between 3.5 million and 4.1 million additional people could fall below the poverty line, raising the poverty rate to approximately 41 percent, compared to 36.3 percent in 2023.

Reza Moradi, an economic analyst based in Tehran, told Diplomat News Network, "The combined impact of reduced exports, rising prices, and limited financial access is already placing significant strain on households.”

Separately, the World Food Programme warned of severe disruptions to global supply chains linked to the conflict and its impact on maritime transport. Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, Corinne Fleischer, Director of Supply Chain at the agency, described the situation as "the largest disruption we have seen since COVID-19 and the start of the war in Ukraine.”

Approximately 70,000 metric tons of food supplies have been affected, with some shipments held aboard vessels and others stranded in containers at congested ports. Observers at major shipping hubs reported long queues of vessels, delayed unloading operations, and limited container availability.

Although the agency does not directly rely on the Strait of Hormuz, Fleischer said the entire global logistics network is experiencing disruption. Many shipping companies are avoiding the Suez Canal, opting instead for longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit times by 25 to 30 days and raising costs by 15 to 25 percent.

The WFP warned that up to 45 million additional people could face food insecurity by June, adding to the 318 million already affected globally, underscoring the widening humanitarian and economic impact of the conflict.