Gaza (diplomat.so) - In a high-level meeting at the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) headquarters, Chief of Staff Lt Gen Herzi Halevi convened his generals to discuss the next phase of military operations. Israel had just carried out the assassination of a key Hezbollah figure and was preparing to invade Lebanon. However, the release of photos from the meeting revealed an unexpected image—fourteen mugshots of Hamas commanders, many marked with red crosses, signaling their deaths. At the top of this list was Yahya Sinwar, Hamas's political leader, whose photo bore a question mark, stirring new rumors about his possible death.
Speculation surrounding Sinwar’s fate has grown in recent weeks, following intelligence reports suggesting that a precision airstrike may have killed him. Sinwar, considered the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks, has been Israel’s top target. Israeli officials remain cautious, as no concrete evidence has surfaced yet, and the complexity of Gaza’s tunnel network has made it difficult to confirm his death. Nevertheless, the IDF continues to assess the situation, with some sources suggesting that Sinwar is likely dead, though officials refrain from making a definitive announcement.
While Israeli sources have hinted at Sinwar's death, Hamas communications have seemingly ceased, adding weight to these claims. Previously, Sinwar communicated through handwritten notes delivered by couriers to maintain operational secrecy. This method helped keep hostage negotiations alive. However, the recent halt in communication raises questions about his current status, with Israel tracking down couriers as part of their intelligence efforts to uncover his whereabouts.
Hamas’s leadership structure has also been disrupted by Israel’s targeted strikes. Rawhi Mushtaha, Sinwar’s right-hand man, was reportedly killed months ago. The IDF's tactics mirror those used in previous assassinations of senior Hamas figures, and similar to the case of Mohammed Deif, an official confirmation of Sinwar’s death may take time. Israel continues to rely on ground-penetrating radar and intelligence from captured documents and interrogations to locate high-ranking Hamas leaders.
Should Sinwar’s death be confirmed, it could have significant repercussions on Hamas’s leadership and the ongoing conflict. Khaled Meshaal, the former leader of Hamas, might be seen as the only figure capable of stepping into Sinwar's role, though he operates from abroad. Meanwhile, the possibility of hostages being killed in the same strike that allegedly eliminated Sinwar could provoke a strong public reaction. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at a possible victory, but without confirmation, Sinwar's fate remains a pivotal question in the broader conflict.
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